Giants vs Eagles — Week 14, 2019
The Giants took over tied at 17 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 17, Eagles 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 1:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.2% for Giants. Our model starts at 58.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 82-K.Smith to NYG 32 for 7 yards (29-A.Maddox) [94-J.Sweat].
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton [94-J.Sweat]. PHI-32-R.Douglas was injured during the play.
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton (22-S.Jones).
- (1:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to PHI 24, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.58 pts |
| QB keep | +1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.32 pts |
| Curl route | +1.19 pts |
| Quick out | +0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.54 pts |
| Play action | +0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.82 pts |
| Deep post | -2.34 pts |
| End-around | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.