Bengals vs Dolphins — Week 16, 2019
The Bengals took over tied at 35 with 4:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 35, Dolphins 38. Dolphins won 38-35 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 36, 4:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.5% for Bengals. Our model starts at 57.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CIN 37 for 6 yards (22-T.Hayes).
- (4:07) 28-J.Mixon right guard to CIN 40 for 3 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Ross III (40-N.Needham).
- (3:25) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.93 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.93 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.57 pts |
| Curl route | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.17 pts |
| Play action | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.54 pts |
| End-around | -2.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.89 pts |
| Deep post | -3.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.