Saints vs Panthers — Week 12, 2019
The Saints took over tied at 31 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 34, Panthers 31. Saints won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 52.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 14 for -6 yards (53-B.Burns). Penalty on NO, Illegal Shift, declined.
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to NO 28 for 14 yards (33-T.Boston). Pass 13, YAC 1
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara to NO 32 for 4 yards (54-S.Thompson). Pass 3, YAC 1
- (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara to NO 40 for 8 yards (23-J.Elliott). Pass 3, YAC 5
- (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 36 for -4 yards (23-J.Elliott). Pass -5, YAC 4
- (:37) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas ran ob at CAR 40 for 24 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Pass 22, YAC 2
- (:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep right to 19-T.Ginn.
- (:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 41-A.Kamara ran ob at CAR 24 for 16 yards (25-E.Reid). Pass -2, YAC 18
- (:19) 41-A.Kamara left guard to CAR 15 for 9 yards (97-M.Addison).
- (:04) 9-D.Brees spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:03) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.70 pts |
| Curl route | +1.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.51 pts |
| QB keep | +1.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Play action | +0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.31 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.34 pts |
| Deep post | -1.58 pts |
| End-around | -2.24 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.