Cardinals vs Lions — Week 1, 2019
The Cardinals took over tied at 27 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 27, Lions 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.7% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 56.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-C.Clay to ARI 30 for 5 yards (27-J.Coleman).
- (3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Byrd.
- (3:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-C.Kirk to ARI 39 for 9 yards (29-R.Melvin).
- (2:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 44 for 5 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 41 for -3 yards (52-C.Jones).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd pushed ob at DET 49 for 10 yards (39-J.Agnew).
- (1:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to DET 46 for 3 yards (90-T.Flowers).
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Kirk (52-C.Jones).
- (1:10) 4-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DET 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-T.Sherfield.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.04 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Curl route | +0.48 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.32 pts |
| End-around | -2.65 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Deep post | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.