Seahawks vs 49ers — Week 10, 2019
The Seahawks took over tied at 24 with 3:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 0 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 27, 49ers 24. Seahawks won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 37, 3:06 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.3% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 58.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:06) 32-C.Carson left tackle to SEA 44 for 7 yards (24-K.Williams).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard to SEA 45 for 1 yard (97-N.Bosa; 99-D.Buckner).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-DK.Metcalf (41-E.Moseley).
- (1:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.26 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.26 pts |
| QB keep | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.94 pts |
| Curl route | +0.68 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Play action | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.86 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.24 pts |
| End-around | -2.52 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
| Deep post | -2.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.