Texans vs Buccaneers — Week 16, 2019
The Texans took over leading 23-20 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Texans 23, Buccaneers 20. Texans won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Texans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 40, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.9% for Texans. Our model starts at 81.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 33 for -7 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills to HOU 44 for 11 yards (26-S.Bunting).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 14-D.Carter to HOU 49 for 5 yards (54-L.David). HOU-78-L.Tunsil was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (2:27) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.68 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.15 pts |
| QB keep | -0.29 pts |
| Inside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick out | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Curl route | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -1.65 pts |
| End-around | -3.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.76 pts |
| Deep post | -6.76 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.