Steelers vs Colts — Week 9, 2019
The Steelers took over leading 26-24 with 3:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 26, Colts 24. Steelers won 26-24 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 35, 3:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.6% for Steelers. Our model starts at 73.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:58) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 33-T.Edmunds up the middle to PIT 37 for 2 yards (23-K.Moore II).
- (3:22) 33-T.Edmunds up the middle to PIT 37 for no gain (23-K.Moore II).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 89-V.McDonald. Pressure 37-Willis.
- (2:35) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to IND 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.51 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | +0.23 pts |
| QB keep | +0.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Curl route | -0.93 pts |
| Play action | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -3.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.01 pts |
| Deep post | -5.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.