Colts vs Falcons — Week 3, 2019
The Colts took over leading 27-24 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Colts 27, Falcons 24. Colts won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.2% for Colts. Our model starts at 74.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-E.Ebron to IND 33 for 8 yards (26-I.Oliver, 37-R.Allen).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle to IND 37 for 4 yards (95-J.Crawford).
- (2:41) 25-M.Mack left guard to IND 41 for 4 yards (96-T.Davison).
- (2:36) 25-M.Mack right end to ATL 33 for 26 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (2:27) 25-M.Mack left guard to ATL 30 for 3 yards (50-J.Cominsky, 59-D.Campbell).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle to ATL 27 for 3 yards (36-K.Ishmael).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-J.Doyle to ATL 16 for 11 yards (27-D.Kazee).
- (1:09) 7-J.Brissett kneels to ATL 17 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 7-J.Brissett kneels to ATL 18 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| QB keep | -0.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Quick out | -0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Curl route | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -1.34 pts |
| End-around | -3.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -5.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.