Texans vs Raiders — Week 8, 2019
The Texans took over leading 27-24 with 3:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Texans 27, Raiders 24. Texans won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Texans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 15, 3:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.7% for Texans. Our model starts at 75.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle to HOU 16 for 1 yard (90-J.Hankins).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 26 for 10 yards (20-D.Worley).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle to HOU 46 for 20 yards (25-E.Harris).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle to HOU 49 for 3 yards (50-N.Morrow).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells to LV 42 for 9 yards (27-T.Mullen).
- (2:00) 4-D.Watson kneels to LV 43 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 4-D.Watson kneels to LV 44 for -1 yards.
- (:36) 4-D.Watson kneels to LV 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.94 pts |
| QB keep | -1.00 pts |
| Quick out | -1.15 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.31 pts |
| Curl route | -1.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.91 pts |
| Play action | -1.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.05 pts |
| End-around | -4.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.67 pts |
| Deep post | -6.21 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.