Cardinals vs 49ers — Week 11, 2019
The Cardinals took over leading 26-23 with 4:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 26, 49ers 36. 49ers won 36-26 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.8% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 74.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:32) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake up the middle to ARI 29 for 4 yards (94-S.Thomas).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake left guard to ARI 30 for 1 yard (57-D.Greenlaw, 97-N.Bosa).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 19 for -11 yards (91-A.Armstead).
- (2:22) 4-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 29, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 35 for 6 yards (28-C.Washington).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.51 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.21 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| QB keep | -0.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick out | -0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.62 pts |
| Curl route | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -3.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.33 pts |
| Deep post | -6.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.