Browns vs Steelers — Week 13, 2019
The Browns took over trailing 20-13 with 1:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 13, Steelers 20. Steelers won 20-13 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 1:45 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.1% for Browns. Our model starts at 5.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 27-K.Hunt to CLE 40 for 5 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden at PIT 38. 23-J.Haden to CLE 46 for 16 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.78 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.78 pts |
| Curl route | +0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| QB keep | +0.31 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| End-around | -0.66 pts |
| Spike it | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.