Lions vs Cowboys — Week 11, 2019
The Lions took over trailing 35-27 with 3:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Lions 27, Cowboys 35. Cowboys won 35-27 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 14, 3:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.3% for Lions. Our model starts at 7.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 31-T.Johnson up the middle to DET 19 for 5 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle to 19-K.Golladay to DAL 47 for 34 yards (23-D.Thompson). PENALTY on DAL-23-D.Thompson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DAL 47.
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Golladay (24-C.Awuzie).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel sacked at DAL 48 for -11 yards (79-M.Bennett).
- (2:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete short right to 41-J.McKissic [90-D.Lawrence].
- (2:07) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to DAL 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-30-D.Virgin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.10 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.10 pts |
| Curl route | +0.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.10 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.22 pts |
| Play action | -0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.34 pts |
| QB keep | -0.34 pts |
| Quick out | -0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.75 pts |
| Spike it | -0.88 pts |
| Outside run | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| End-around | -1.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.