Chargers vs Colts — Week 1, 2019
The Chargers took over tied at 24 with 0:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 24, Colts 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive time expired.
Chargers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 0:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 57.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:38) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 86-H.Henry to LAC 33 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore II).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 88-V.Green ran ob at LAC 37 for 4 yards (23-K.Moore II).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 12-T.Benjamin.
- (:16) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 22-J.Jackson to LAC 39 for 4 yards (31-Q.Wilson; 35-P.Desir) [52-B.Banogu].
- (:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers scrambles right end ran ob at LAC 45 for 6 yards (99-J.Houston).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.87 pts |
| Curl route | +1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.66 pts |
| QB keep | +1.59 pts |
| Quick out | +0.89 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.69 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.39 pts |
| Inside run | -1.46 pts |
| Deep post | -1.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.02 pts |
| Take a knee | -2.37 pts |
| End-around | -2.92 pts |
| Spike it | -2.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.