Seahawks vs Panthers — Week 15, 2019
The Seahawks took over leading 30-24 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 30, Panthers 24. Seahawks won 30-24 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.5% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 90.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) 32-C.Carson left end to SEA 30 for 5 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard to SEA 34 for 14 yards (33-T.Boston).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 14 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Penalty on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Illegal Contact, declined.
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 39 for 1 yard (92-V.Butler; 55-B.Irvin).
- (2:00) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right end to SEA 49 for 10 yards (33-T.Boston).
- (1:12) 3-R.Wilson kneels to SEA 48 for -1 yards.
- (:31) 3-R.Wilson kneels to SEA 47 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.51 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.86 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| QB keep | -0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -2.39 pts |
| Curl route | -2.61 pts |
| End-around | -4.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.89 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.73 pts |
| Deep post | -8.21 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.