Buccaneers vs Giants — Week 3, 2019
The Buccaneers took over leading 31-25 with 4:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 31, Giants 32. Giants won 32-31 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 22, 4:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.2% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 86.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:20) 27-R.Jones up the middle to TB 30 for 8 yards (41-A.Bethea).
- (3:41) 27-R.Jones left guard to TB 30 for no gain (95-B.Hill; 97-D.Lawrence II).
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate to TB 31 for 1 yard (31-M.Thomas).
- (3:24) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-T.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.79 pts |
| QB keep | -0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.84 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -2.26 pts |
| Curl route | -2.41 pts |
| End-around | -4.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.50 pts |
| Deep post | -7.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.