Jets vs Giants — Week 10, 2019
The Jets took over leading 34-27 with 4:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Jets 34, Giants 27. Jets won 34-27 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 27, 4:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.5% for Jets. Our model starts at 90.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:50) 26-L.Bell right guard to NYJ 30 for 3 yards (21-J.Peppers; 94-D.Tomlinson).
- (4:45) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 26-L.Bell to NYJ 36 for 6 yards (25-C.Ballentine).
- (4:36) 26-L.Bell up the middle to NYJ 36 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson). New York Jets challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (4:23) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick out | -1.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Play action | -2.62 pts |
| Curl route | -2.88 pts |
| End-around | -4.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.94 pts |
| Deep post | -8.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.