Bears vs Broncos — Week 2, 2019
The Bears took over leading 13-6 with 4:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Bears 16, Broncos 14. Bears won 16-14 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 11, 4:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 89.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to CHI 15 for 4 yards (56-C.Nelson).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at CHI 23 for 8 yards (25-C.Harris).
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to CHI 25 for 2 yards (47-J.Jewell).
- (3:52) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Burton to CHI 25 for no gain (22-K.Jackson).
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 12-A.Robinson to CHI 28 for 3 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (3:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DEN 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 38 for 17 yards (48-P.Scales). DEN-36-T.Marshall was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.19 pts |
| Quick out | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.57 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.78 pts |
| QB keep | -1.83 pts |
| Play action | -3.06 pts |
| Curl route | -3.35 pts |
| End-around | -5.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.22 pts |
| Deep post | -8.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.