Eagles vs Commanders — Week 15, 2019
The Eagles took over trailing 27-24 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 37, Commanders 27. Eagles won 37-27 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 32.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right end to PHI 23 for -2 yards (52-R.Anderson).
- (4:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 26-M.Sanders pushed ob at PHI 30 for 7 yards (41-D.Johnson; 90-M.Sweat).
- (4:01) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 84-G.Ward to PHI 43 for 13 yards (41-D.Johnson). Penalty on WAS-47-A.Colvin, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 35-B.Scott to PHI 49 for 6 yards (54-N.Orchard).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left guard to WAS 45 for 6 yards (93-Jon.Allen).
- (2:26) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at WAS 25 for 20 yards (35-M.Nicholson) [98-M.Ioannidis].
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 26-M.Sanders to WAS 28 for -3 yards (93-Jon.Allen). WAS-31-F.Moreau was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. 31 - hamstring injury
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 84-G.Ward to WAS 15 for 13 yards (41-D.Johnson).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to WAS 14 for 1 yard (90-M.Sweat; 93-Jon.Allen).
- (:41) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 84-G.Ward to WAS 4 for 10 yards (20-L.Collins).
- (:32) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 84-G.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.89 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.87 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Play action | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep post | -0.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.00 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -1.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.30 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.