Falcons vs Eagles — Week 2, 2019
The Falcons took over trailing 20-17 with 3:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 24, Eagles 20. Falcons won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.7% for Falcons. Our model starts at 32.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman to ATL 34 for 9 yards (53-N.Bradham).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 12-M.Sanu (29-A.Maddox).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones (32-R.Douglas).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 46 for 7 yards (29-A.Maddox) [96-D.Barnett].
- (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 24-D.Freeman [55-B.Graham].
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.26 pts |
| QB keep | +1.15 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Quick out | +0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Deep post | +0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.79 pts |
| End-around | -1.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.09 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.