Eagles vs Lions — Week 3, 2019
The Eagles took over trailing 27-24 with 3:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 24, Lions 27. Lions won 27-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 3:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.0% for Eagles. Our model starts at 30.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor to PHI 22 for 2 yards (27-J.Coleman).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete left to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside (92-K.Strong).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 13-N.Agholor (27-J.Coleman) [95-R.Okwara].
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles up the middle to PHI 28 for 6 yards (42-D.Kennard).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.09 pts |
| Play action | +0.64 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Deep post | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.66 pts |
| End-around | -1.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.92 pts |
| Spike it | -2.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.