Chargers vs Broncos — Week 13, 2019
The Chargers took over trailing 20-17 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 20, Broncos 23. Broncos won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.6% for Chargers. Our model starts at 33.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 29 for 4 yards (45-A.Johnson).
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 24 for -5 yards (45-A.Johnson).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-M.Williams to LAC 34 for 10 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 38 for 38 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to DEN 34 for 4 yards (31-J.Simmons; 96-S.Harris).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry to DEN 29 for 5 yards (51-T.Davis).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to DEN 29 for no gain (31-J.Simmons).
- (:19) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.06 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| QB keep | +0.86 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Deep post | -0.68 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| End-around | -1.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.26 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.