Colts vs Buccaneers — Week 14, 2019
The Colts took over trailing 38-35 with 3:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 35, Buccaneers 38. Buccaneers won 38-35 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.7% for Colts. Our model starts at 32.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:51) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 33 for 8 yards (39-A.Adams).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal to IND 42 for 9 yards (35-J.Dean).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Johnson (35-J.Dean, 93-N.Suh).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 21-N.Hines to 50 for 8 yards (31-J.Whitehead).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Doyle [54-L.David].
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 7-J.Brissett. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left. Penalty on IND-7-J.Brissett, Illegal Forward Pass, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.06 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Play action | +0.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Deep post | -0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -1.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.29 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.