Chargers vs Titans — Week 7, 2019
The Chargers took over trailing 23-20 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 20, Titans 23. Titans won 23-20 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Near midfield, 2:35 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.0% for Chargers. Our model starts at 39.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 30-A.Ekeler.
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to TEN 45 for 6 yards (26-L.Ryan).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 81-M.Williams to TEN 35 for 10 yards (21-M.Butler).
- (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to TEN 16 for 19 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.Allen (26-L.Ryan).
- (:44) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to TEN 1 for 15 yards (24-K.Vaccaro; 26-L.Ryan).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle to TEN 1 for no gain (98-J.Simmons, 54-R.Evans).
- (:19) 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-M.Gordon right guard to TEN 1 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). FUMBLES (59-W.Woodyard), RECOVERED by TEN-99-J.Casey at TEN 0. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.87 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.58 pts |
| QB keep | +1.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.89 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.29 pts |
| Deep post | -0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -1.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.