Jaguars vs Raiders — Week 15, 2019
The Jaguars took over trailing 16-13 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 20, Raiders 16. Jaguars won 20-16 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 1:44 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 30.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 16-C.Board to JAX 43 for 8 yards (51-W.Compton).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II scrambles up the middle to LV 49 for 8 yards (91-B.Mayowa).
- (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 27-L.Fournette pushed ob at LV 38 for 11 yards (27-T.Mullen).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley pushed ob at LV 17 for 21 yards (29-L.Joyner).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 27-L.Fournette pushed ob at LV 4 for 4 yards (26-N.Lawson; 35-C.Riley).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete short middle to 18-C.Conley (27-T.Mullen).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.22 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.68 pts |
| QB keep | +1.51 pts |
| Play action | +1.14 pts |
| Deep post | +1.04 pts |
| Quick out | +0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.21 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| End-around | -1.67 pts |
| Spike it | -2.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.