Lions vs Bears — Week 13, 2019
The Lions took over trailing 24-20 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Lions 20, Bears 24. Bears won 24-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Lions ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.1% for Lions. Our model starts at 19.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Amendola (23-K.Fuller).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at DET 23 for 6 yards (24-B.Skrine).
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short right to 88-T.Hockenson to DET 27 for 4 yards (58-R.Smith; 23-K.Fuller).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short right to 88-T.Hockenson pushed ob at DET 36 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Jones Jr..
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep middle to 19-K.Golladay to DET 46 for 20 yards (20-P.Amukamara).
- (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass incomplete deep right to 88-T.Hockenson (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short middle to 31-T.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 42 for 7 yards (58-R.Smith). PENALTY on CHI-58-R.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 42.
- (:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson pushed ob at CHI 26 for 1 yard (58-R.Smith).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass incomplete deep right to 80-D.Amendola.
- (:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough sacked at CHI 39 for -13 yards (58-R.Smith).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass deep left intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 39-E.Jackson at CHI 10. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 14 for 4 yards (82-L.Thomas).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.97 pts |
| Deep post | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| QB keep | +0.21 pts |
| Play action | +0.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.11 pts |
| Quick out | -0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.88 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.18 pts |
| Outside run | -1.32 pts |
| Inside run | -1.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.92 pts |
| Spike it | -1.93 pts |
| End-around | -1.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.