Bills vs Browns — Week 10, 2019
The Bills took over trailing 19-16 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Bills 16, Browns 19. Browns won 19-16 — the drive missed field goal.
Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.0% for Bills. Our model starts at 26.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete short left to 26-D.Singletary.
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary pushed ob at BUF 27 for 2 yards (23-D.Randall).
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown to BUF 48 for 21 yards (42-M.Burnett).
- (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short right to 19-I.McKenzie ran ob at CLE 41 for 11 yards (21-D.Ward).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete short left to 26-D.Singletary (38-T.Carrie).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to CLE 35 for 6 yards (21-D.Ward).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 15-J.Brown.
- (:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.12 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.38 pts |
| Deep post | +1.22 pts |
| Play action | +1.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.40 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.05 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.