Bills vs Titans — Week 5, 2019
The Bills took over leading 14-7 with 4:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Bills 14, Titans 7. Bills won 14-7 — the drive time expired.
Bills ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 29, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.1% for Bills. Our model starts at 91.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:12) 20-F.Gore left end to BUF 28 for -1 yards (58-H.Landry, 93-R.Gilbert).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 22-T.Yeldon right guard to BUF 39 for 11 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (2:54) 20-F.Gore up the middle to 50 for 11 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
- (2:09) 20-F.Gore left end to TEN 31 for 19 yards (31-K.Byard; 26-L.Ryan).
- (2:00) 20-F.Gore left tackle to TEN 27 for 4 yards (55-J.Brown).
- (1:55) 20-F.Gore up the middle to TEN 24 for 3 yards (92-M.Dickerson; 90-D.Jones).
- (1:50) 17-J.Allen left end to TEN 19 for 5 yards (54-R.Evans).
- (1:05) 17-J.Allen kneels to TEN 20 for -1 yards.
- (:34) 17-J.Allen kneels to TEN 21 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -1.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.66 pts |
| Curl route | -2.95 pts |
| End-around | -4.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.03 pts |
| Deep post | -8.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.