Falcons vs Saints — Week 13, 2019
The Falcons took over trailing 26-18 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 18, Saints 26. Saints won 26-18 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Near midfield, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 8.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 46 for -1 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 24-D.Freeman to ATL 49 for 3 yards (52-C.Robertson).
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 47 for -7 yards (98-S.Rankins).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy to NO 44 for 9 yards (26-P.Williams).
- (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus [56-D.Davis].
- (:44) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 48 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.07 pts |
| Curl route | +0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| End-around | -0.95 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Spike it | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.