Texans vs Falcons — Week 5, 2019
The Texans took over leading 40-32 with 3:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Texans 53, Falcons 32. Texans won 53-32 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 40, 3:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.3% for Texans. Our model starts at 96.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde right guard to HOU 41 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones; 96-T.Davison).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller to HOU 48 for 7 yards (21-D.Trufant).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to ATL 49 for 3 yards (26-I.Oliver).
- (3:06) 23-C.Hyde left tackle to HOU 48 for -3 yards (98-T.McKinley).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to ATL 44 for 8 yards (20-K.Sheffield, 37-R.Allen).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.89 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.82 pts |
| Quick out | -1.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -3.00 pts |
| Curl route | -3.40 pts |
| End-around | -5.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.45 pts |
| Deep post | -9.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.