Falcons vs 49ers — Week 15, 2019

What really happened

Final: Falcons 29, 49ers 22. Falcons won 29-22 — the drive scored.

Falcons ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 1:42 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 15.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 83-R.Gage (91-A.Armstead). A.Armstead batted pass at LOS.
2. (1:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman to ATL 43 for 13 yards (23-A.Witherspoon) [91-A.Armstead]. Caught at ATL 37. 6-yac
3. (1:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-R.Gage ran ob at SF 49 for 8 yards (32-D.Reed Jr.). Caught at ATL 47. 4-yac
4. (1:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 24 for 25 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at SF 35. 11-yac
5. (:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles up the middle to SF 15 for 9 yards (41-E.Moseley).
6. (:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Hooper (36-M.Harris).
7. (:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones to SF 5 for 10 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Caught at SF 6. 1-yac
8. (:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 24-D.Freeman [91-A.Armstead].
9. (:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Hooper (36-M.Harris).
10. (:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to SF 1 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Ryan rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.