Buccaneers vs Cardinals — Week 10, 2019
The Buccaneers took over trailing 27-23 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 30, Cardinals 27. Buccaneers won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 8, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.6% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 22.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin to ARI 43 for 49 yards (34-J.Thompson).
- (2:49) 25-P.Barber right end to ARI 13 for 14 yards (32-B.Baker).
- (2:05) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Godwin (27-K.Peterson).
- (1:56) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 80-O.Howard. ARI-95-R.Gunter was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (1:51) 50-V.Vea reported in as eligible. 25-P.Barber up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (56-T.Suggs, 91-M.Dogbe).
- (1:47) 25-P.Barber left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.99 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.99 pts |
| Curl route | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.18 pts |
| Deep post | -1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.22 pts |
| Quick out | -1.30 pts |
| QB keep | -1.31 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -1.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.86 pts |
| Outside run | -1.96 pts |
| Inside run | -1.96 pts |
| Spike it | -2.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.82 pts |
| End-around | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.