Vikings vs Packers — Week 2, 2019
The Vikings took over trailing 21-16 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 16, Packers 21. Packers won 21-16 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 24, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 21.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) 33-D.Cook left end to MIN 27 for 3 yards (90-M.Adams; 93-B.Goodson).
- (3:36) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Thielen [51-K.Fackrell].
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 19-A.Thielen.
- (3:24) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-T.Davis to GB 21 for no gain (38-K.Boyd). Penalty on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on GB-25-W.Redmond, Offensive Holding, offsetting.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.13 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.84 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.42 pts |
| Deep post | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.17 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| End-around | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -1.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.