Rams vs Steelers — Week 10, 2019
The Rams took over trailing 17-12 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 12, Steelers 17. Steelers won 17-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Rams ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 34, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.7% for Rams. Our model starts at 20.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett pushed ob at LA 46 for 12 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett to PIT 49 for 5 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett to PIT 40 for 9 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 83-J.Reynolds to PIT 30 for 10 yards (55-D.Bush).
- (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Everett. Coverage by 26-Barron.
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 81-G.Everett (22-S.Nelson).
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Reynolds (97-C.Heyward).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds (34-Te.Edmunds).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.12 pts |
| Deep post | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.98 pts |
| Play action | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| End-around | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.