Buccaneers vs Titans — Week 8, 2019

What really happened

Final: Buccaneers 23, Titans 27. Titans won 27-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Buccaneers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 28, 3:41 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.4% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 26.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Godwin [26-L.Ryan].
2. (3:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 19-B.Perriman [99-J.Casey].
3. (3:29) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left guard pushed ob at TB 48 for 20 yards (37-A.Hooker).
4. (3:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin pushed ob at TEN 44 for 8 yards (26-L.Ryan).
5. (3:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 44-D.Ogunbowale to TEN 41 for 3 yards (24-K.Vaccaro, 54-R.Evans).
6. (2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 19-B.Perriman.
7. (2:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 19-B.Perriman.
8. (2:29) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles right tackle to TEN 32 for 9 yards (54-R.Evans).
9. (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TEN 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Casey, 24-K.Vaccaro).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.