Cardinals vs Steelers — Week 14, 2019
The Cardinals took over trailing 23-17 with 1:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 17, Steelers 23. Steelers won 23-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:42 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.6% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 9.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 20 for -5 yards (97-C.Heyward).
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 14 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI 13. 1-K.Murray to ARI 13 for no gain (48-B.Dupree).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald.
- (:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [90-T.Watt] at ARI 46. 23-J.Haden to ARI 46 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.12 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.12 pts |
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.63 pts |
| QB keep | +0.53 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| End-around | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.00 pts |
| Spike it | -1.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.