Bengals vs Steelers — Week 12, 2019
The Bengals took over trailing 16-10 with 3:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 10, Steelers 16. Steelers won 16-10 — the drive turnover.
Bengals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 21, 3:10 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.8% for Bengals. Our model starts at 11.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short right to 25-G.Bernard to CIN 29 for 8 yards (26-M.Barron; 97-C.Heyward).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley sacked at CIN 21 for -8 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-48-B.Dupree at CIN 21. 48-B.Dupree to CIN 21 for no gain (77-C.Glenn).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.98 pts |
| Deep post | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.63 pts |
| QB keep | +0.54 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| End-around | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.