Eagles vs Patriots — Week 11, 2019
The Eagles took over trailing 17-10 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 10, Patriots 17. Patriots won 17-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 6, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.6% for Eagles. Our model starts at 11.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside to PHI 35 for 29 yards (21-D.Harmon) [50-C.Winovich].
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert (25-T.Brooks) [54-D.Hightower].
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-N.Agholor to PHI 45 for 5 yards (24-S.Gilmore).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to NE 45 for 10 yards (25-T.Brooks).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Matthews (27-J.Jackson) [53-K.Van Noy].
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 13-N.Agholor (70-A.Butler).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 13-N.Agholor to NE 26 for 19 yards (30-J.McCourty).
- (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 86-Z.Ertz.
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 13-N.Agholor.
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 86-Z.Ertz.
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 13-N.Agholor [54-D.Hightower]. PHI-13-N.Agholor was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.65 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep post | -0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick out | -0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.85 pts |
| QB keep | -0.85 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.90 pts |
| Curl route | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.22 pts |
| Play action | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -1.25 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Outside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.76 pts |
| End-around | -1.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.