Buccaneers vs Seahawks — Week 9, 2019
The Buccaneers took over trailing 34-27 with 4:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 34, Seahawks 34. Tied 34-34 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 12.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 44-D.Ogunbowale to TB 37 for 12 yards (50-K.Wright).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 19-B.Perriman.
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at SEA 40 for 23 yards (27-M.Blair). Seattle challenged the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (3:33) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 12-C.Godwin left tackle to SEA 32 for 8 yards (50-K.Wright).
- (2:49) 27-R.Jones up the middle to SEA 35 for -3 yards (90-J.Clowney, 30-B.McDougald).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 19-B.Perriman (26-Sq.Griffin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left end to SEA 30 for 5 yards (50-K.Wright).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 27-R.Jones to SEA 18 for 12 yards (54-B.Wagner; 26-Sq.Griffin).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to SEA 1 for 17 yards (27-M.Blair, 26-Sq.Griffin).
- (:48) (No Huddle) 44-D.Ogunbowale left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.80 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| End-around | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.