Bills vs Bengals — Week 3, 2019
The Bills took over trailing 17-14 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Bills 21, Bengals 17. Bills won 21-17 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 22, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.1% for Bills. Our model starts at 31.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-C.Beasley to BUF 29 for 7 yards (55-L.Reynolds). Caught in flat at BUF 27.
- (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 88-D.Knox to CIN 22 for 49 yards (22-W.Jackson III). Caught near sideline at BUF 44.
- (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to CIN 16 for 6 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
- (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to CIN 8 for 8 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 22-T.Yeldon up the middle to CIN 8 for no gain (93-A.Brown).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle to CIN 1 for 7 yards (93-A.Brown, 36-S.Williams).
- (1:54) 20-F.Gore left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.91 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.87 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Play action | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep post | -0.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.93 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -1.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.20 pts |
| Spike it | -2.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.