Giants vs Cardinals — Week 7, 2019
The Giants took over trailing 24-21 with 4:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Cardinals 27. Cardinals won 27-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 32.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 18-B.Fowler to NYG 38 for 13 yards (21-P.Peterson).
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 30 for -8 yards (55-Cha.Jones).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 15-G.Tate (32-B.Baker).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NYG 33 for 3 yards (43-H.Reddick; 98-C.Peters).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 23 for -10 yards (21-P.Peterson). FUMBLES (21-P.Peterson) [21-P.Peterson], RECOVERED by ARI-43-H.Reddick at NYG 20. 43-H.Reddick to NYG 17 for 3 yards (76-N.Solder). ARI-43-H.Reddick was injured during the play. Officially, a sack for 13 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.09 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.89 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Deep post | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -1.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.