Ravens vs Steelers — Week 5, 2019
The Ravens took over trailing 23-20 with 2:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 23, Steelers 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.8% for Ravens. Our model starts at 29.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at BAL 27 for 2 yards (28-M.Hilton).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 83-W.Snead to PIT 44 for 14 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick, 98-V.Williams).
- (2:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram left tackle to PIT 40 for 4 yards (91-S.Tuitt; 98-V.Williams).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram right guard to PIT 35 for 5 yards (97-C.Heyward).
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle to PIT 30 for 5 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to PIT 27 for 3 yards (98-V.Williams).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 30 for -3 yards (79-J.Hargrave).
- (:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 11-S.Roberts. Coverage by 22-Nelson, 39-Fitzpatrick.
- (:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.82 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.41 pts |
| QB keep | +1.26 pts |
| Play action | +0.86 pts |
| Quick out | +0.66 pts |
| Deep post | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.65 pts |
| End-around | -1.70 pts |
| Spike it | -2.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.