Colts vs Dolphins — Week 10, 2019
The Colts took over trailing 16-12 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Colts 12, Dolphins 16. Dolphins won 16-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.7% for Colts. Our model starts at 25.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short left to 14-Z.Pascal (40-N.Needham).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack left guard to IND 27 for 2 yards (40-N.Needham).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right to 80-C.Rogers to IND 47 for 20 yards (30-C.Lammons).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (56-D.Godchaux; 94-C.Wilkins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 27 for 23 yards (21-E.Rowe).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-N.Hines up the middle to MIA 20 for 7 yards (21-E.Rowe).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Johnson.
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 85-E.Ebron ran ob at MIA 16 for 4 yards.
- (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short middle to 85-E.Ebron (21-E.Rowe) [49-S.Eguavoen].
- (:55) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep right to 80-C.Rogers.
- (:50) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep right to 85-E.Ebron.
- (:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.09 pts |
| QB keep | +0.96 pts |
| Play action | +0.59 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Deep post | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.65 pts |
| Spike it | -2.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.