Panthers vs Commanders — Week 13, 2019
The Panthers took over trailing 29-21 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 48, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 21, Commanders 29. Commanders won 29-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Near midfield, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.3% for Panthers. Our model starts at 8.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to WAS 35 for 17 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete short left to 22-C.McCaffrey.
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 80-I.Thomas to WAS 29 for 6 yards (50-C.Odom; 54-N.Orchard).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to WAS 22 for 7 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to WAS 1 for 21 yards (53-J.Bostic; 20-L.Collins).
- (:41) (No Huddle) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 2 for -1 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left tackle to WAS 3 for -1 yards (54-N.Orchard).
- (:31) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Moore (23-Q.Dunbar).
- (:27) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at WAS 26 for -23 yards (50-C.Odom). FUMBLES (50-C.Odom) [50-C.Odom], RECOVERED by WAS-54-N.Orchard at WAS 31. 54-N.Orchard to WAS 31 for no gain (72-T.Moton). PENALTY on WAS-23-Q.Dunbar, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.09 pts |
| Curl route | +0.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| End-around | -0.96 pts |
| Spike it | -0.99 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.