Chargers vs Chiefs — Week 11, 2019
The Chargers took over trailing 24-17 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Chiefs 24. Chiefs won 24-17 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 17, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.5% for Chargers. Our model starts at 12.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 81-M.Williams.
- (4:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 25-M.Gordon.
- (4:20) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 16-A.Patton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Fenton at KC 33. 27-R.Fenton to KC 33 for no gain (16-A.Patton).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.36 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.17 pts |
| Deep post | +0.13 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.10 pts |
| QB keep | -0.02 pts |
| Play action | -0.10 pts |
| Quick out | -0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.95 pts |
| Outside run | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Spike it | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| End-around | -1.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.