Chargers vs Broncos — Week 5, 2019
The Chargers took over trailing 17-10 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 13, Broncos 20. Broncos won 20-13 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.5% for Chargers. Our model starts at 12.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 30-A.Ekeler (96-S.Harris).
- (4:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 30 for 5 yards (27-D.Harris).
- (3:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 12-T.Benjamin.
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep middle to 81-M.Williams (45-A.Johnson).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 25-M.Gordon.
- (3:30) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to DEN 29, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 31 for 2 yards (35-T.Pope).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.77 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.51 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| QB keep | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.66 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.06 pts |
| End-around | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.