Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 2, 2019

What really happened

Final: Panthers 14, Buccaneers 20. Buccaneers won 20-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Panthers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:26 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.5% for Panthers. Our model starts at 12.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel pushed ob at CAR 49 for 24 yards (33-C.Davis).
2. (2:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel. Carolina challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
3. (2:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen pushed ob at TB 45 for 6 yards (54-L.David).
4. (2:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore to TB 41 for 4 yards (28-V.Hargreaves).
5. (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at TB 31 for 10 yards (33-C.Davis).
6. (1:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Moore.
7. (1:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to TB 22 for 9 yards (33-C.Davis). PENALTY on TB-33-C.Davis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 11 yards, enforced at TB 22. Penalty on TB-33-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Administrative review for enforcement.
8. (1:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 22-C.McCaffrey.
9. (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Moore [58-S.Barrett].
10. (1:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore to TB 3 for 8 yards (28-V.Hargreaves).
11. (1:28) Direct snap to 22-C.McCaffrey. 22-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at TB 2 for no gain (28-V.Hargreaves). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.