Cowboys vs Patriots — Week 12, 2019
The Cowboys took over trailing 13-9 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 9, Patriots 13. Patriots won 13-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 8, 2:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.2% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 21.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to DAL 26 for 18 yards (31-J.Jones) [71-D.Shelton].
- (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Witten.
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup to DAL 35 for 9 yards (27-J.Jackson).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 18-R.Cobb.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 45 for 20 yards (27-J.Jackson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 19-A.Cooper.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.90 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.90 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.03 pts |
| Curl route | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.27 pts |
| Quick out | -1.35 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -1.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.06 pts |
| Inside run | -2.15 pts |
| Outside run | -2.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.75 pts |
| End-around | -3.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.