Broncos vs Jaguars — Week 4, 2019
The Broncos took over trailing 23-17 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 24, Jaguars 26. Jaguars won 26-24 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.0% for Broncos. Our model starts at 12.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders to DEN 41 for 16 yards (26-J.Wilson).
- (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to JAX 32 for 27 yards (37-T.Herndon).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 28-R.Freeman pushed ob at JAX 30 for 2 yards (56-Q.Williams; 26-J.Wilson).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 28-R.Freeman right end to JAX 21 for 9 yards (21-A.Bouye). PENALTY on DEN-87-N.Fant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 25.
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders ran ob at JAX 8 for 27 yards (36-R.Harrison).
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.09 pts |
| Deep post | +0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| End-around | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Spike it | -1.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.