Broncos vs Colts — Week 8, 2019
The Broncos took over leading 13-12 with 3:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 13, Colts 15. Colts won 15-13 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 38, 3:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 68.0% for Broncos. Our model starts at 68.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:37) 30-P.Lindsay right end to DEN 46 for 8 yards (50-A.Walker, 23-K.Moore II).
- (2:43) 28-R.Freeman up the middle to IND 48 for 6 yards (53-D.Leonard, 58-B.Okereke).
- (2:33) 28-R.Freeman up the middle to IND 47 for 1 yard (23-K.Moore II).
- (2:28) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 30-P.Lindsay to IND 43 for 4 yards (50-A.Walker).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to IND 43 for no gain (53-D.Leonard, 29-M.Hooker).
- (1:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 32 yards to IND 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.25 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.33 pts |
| Outside run | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.25 pts |
| Curl route | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Play action | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.82 pts |
| End-around | -3.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.32 pts |
| Deep post | -4.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.58 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.