Seahawks vs Bengals — Week 1, 2019
The Seahawks took over leading 21-20 with 3:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 21, Bengals 20. Seahawks won 21-20 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. Backed up at their own 6, 3:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 68.8% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 61.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson right end to SEA 11 for 5 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 15 for 4 yards (52-P.Brown; 59-N.Vigil).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson left end to SEA 36 for 21 yards (30-J.Bates III; 59-N.Vigil).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right guard to SEA 36 for no gain (59-N.Vigil).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 35 for -1 yards (94-S.Hubbard; 97-G.Atkins).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end to SEA 35 for 5 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
- (:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to CIN 25, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.16 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Outside run | -1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.65 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.67 pts |
| Quick out | -1.81 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.31 pts |
| Curl route | -2.93 pts |
| Play action | -3.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.26 pts |
| End-around | -4.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.76 pts |
| Deep post | -5.19 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.